Riko Otomo, Kansei Fujimoto, Taichi Tebakari
Received 17 September, 2025
Accepted 21 February, 2026
Published online 29 May, 2026
Riko Otomo1), Kansei Fujimoto1), Taichi Tebakari2)
1) Civil, Human and Environmental Science and Engineering Course, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, Japan
2) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chuo University, Japan
Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause significant human casualties and socioeconomic damage. Recent increases in sea surface temperature (SST) have been linked to changes in the intensity of TCs and their points of origin. However, the scientific questions regarding the long-term characteristics of TCs and when and where the SST transition began remain insufficiently elucidated. Therefore, this study investigated the characteristics of typhoons from 1951 to 2024, alongside the long-term trend in SST. The analysis period was also divided into three segments to compare the strength and evolution of trends within each period. The statistical analysis suggests that the onset of a westward shift in typhoons’ point of origin occurred during the period 1977–2002, while the onset of a northward shift occurred during the period 1951–1976. The significant rise in SST during the 1977–2002 period suggests that since 1977, the location of typhoon formation, particularly those making landfall in Southeast Asia, may have shifted significantly from the waters east of the Philippines to the South China Sea. These findings demonstrate that typhoon formation patterns undergo gradual, decadal-scale transitions, providing essential scientific evidence for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.
Copyright (c) 2026 The Author(s) CC-BY 4.0
